Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60f6…a196 sports 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (344 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,129 (+10%) realized +$2,085 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate39%57W / 90L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day343.6pace
Fees−$357est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,191
7 days+$1,305
14 days+$1,310
30 days+$1,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$322
other 41% +$1,241
crypto 2% −$32
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (344 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +8.4% -1.9% 35% 18% -2.9%
≤30d 147 +11.6% +1.0% 39% 20% -3.2%
≤90d 147 +11.6% +1.0% 39% 20% -3.2%
all 147 +11.6% +1.0% 39% 20% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover343.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 20% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 16% -12.4%
15% -17.5% 10% -20.9%
20% -25.6% 10% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$10 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$2,085
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses57 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$357
Open positions5
Markets (closed)147 / 133
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day343.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? No 3¢ 100¢ $2 $83 +$81 (+3232%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? No 6¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 17 $18 −$25 -139%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -33%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$3 -278%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 −$27 -127%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$12 -142%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $2 −$4 -187%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $16 −$77 -480%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -74%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,203 +$18 +2%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $18 +$629 +3514%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$3 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$28 -52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $186 +$46 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$5 -61%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $772 +$183 +24%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$11 -24%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $447 +$35 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $319 +$201 +63%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $40 −$13 -33%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $172 −$36 -21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $452 −$43 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $403 +$21 +5%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $92 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $105 +$17 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -10%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $363 +$3 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $201 −$7 -4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $250 +$16 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $13 +$172 +1305%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $671 +$127 +19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 −$46 -24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 −$13 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $189 −$28 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 2m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $48 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.22 · official $121.49 · 3500 history records