Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x60f1…cb3e crypto 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,402 (+1%) realized +$2,385 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate79%286W / 76L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$728per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$577
7 days−$526
14 days−$270
30 days+$1,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$4,161
economics 1% −$2
other 1% −$2
world 0% −$9
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.5% -9.0% 87% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 111 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 11% -6.6%
≤90d 260 +2.0% -7.7% 83% 8% -9.4%
all 362 +2.3% -7.4% 79% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 9% -8.1%
10% -16.3% 6% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 4% -24.9%
20% -31.8% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$634) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$70 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$2,134
Realized+$2,385
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses286 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)362 / 365
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$728
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,704 $1,720 +$16 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $326 $327 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 29 $870 +$16 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 29 $3,789 −$542 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $1,241 +$8 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? Jun 29 $401 +$11 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $407 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 28 $3,032 −$76 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 28 $431 +$18 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? Jun 28 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $646 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? Jun 26 $600 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $860 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 24 $1,160 −$28 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 24 $1,720 +$19 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 23? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $277 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $150 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $420 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $351 +$9 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $116 −$24 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 22 $1,935 −$52 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $1,107 +$284 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $480 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $446 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 18? Jun 19 $240 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $194 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $240 +$14 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $500 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $970 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $650 −$11 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 16 $230 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $322 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $267 −$3 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $801 −$10 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $2,372 −$76 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $161 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $206 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $120 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $414 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $404 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $801 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $502 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $702 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $700 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $401 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $500 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $501 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $267 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $974 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $30 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $30 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $407 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $407 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $38 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $102 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $111 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $500 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $153 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $302 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $400 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY No 97¢ $401 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $300 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,133.95 · official $2,133.95 (match) · 3500 history records