Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x60ef…b24b sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$339 (+4%) realized +$350 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$17
other 24% +$330
crypto 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.1% -17.8% 36% 32% -5.8%
≤30d 28 -9.1% -17.8% 36% 32% -5.8%
≤90d 28 -9.1% -17.8% 36% 32% -5.8%
all 28 -9.1% -17.8% 36% 32% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 32% -5.8%
10% -25.6% 32% -14.8%
15% -32.8% 32% -23.0%
20% -39.4% 29% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$96 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,137
Realized+$350
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 53¢ 52¢ $248 $246 −$2 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 61¢ 60¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 36¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 −$10 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $617 +$4 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $292 +$232 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $130 +$234 +180%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $299 −$170 -57%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$18 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$6 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $248 +$240 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$7 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $202 +$137 +67%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $99 +$72 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $710 −$125 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $265 −$100 -38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $594 +$265 +45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $267 −$20 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$222 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $136 −$97 -72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$22 -7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $23 −$5 -23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $362 −$358 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $341 +$358 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $181 −$178 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 53¢ $251 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $304 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $102 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $202 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 42¢ $288 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $293 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 39¢ $96 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 62¢ $195 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $102 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $202 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $454 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $305 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $303 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $167 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $130 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $129 12h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $89 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 20h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 40¢ $287 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $162 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $197 20h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $305 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $152 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $299 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,137.24 · official $1,137.24 (match) · 79 history records