Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60ee…4c14 crypto 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%73W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$21
sports 4% +$3
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 75% 75% +2.1%
≤30d 130 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 44% -10.2%
≤90d 130 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 44% -10.2%
all 130 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 44% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 44% -10.2%
10% -19.3% 35% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 28% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses73 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage29d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Ella Seidel 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$20 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$11 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +53%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 30 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $15 +$6 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET May 29 $51 −$42 -82%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 29 $1 $0 -39%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 29 $1 $0 -16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $30 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $40 +$2 +6%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $1 −$1 -82%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $5 −$1 -15%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12AM ET May 29 $40 +$4 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $40 +$5 +12%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $20 +$4 +22%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 28 $30 +$2 +5%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $20 +$5 +23%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies May 28 $5 −$3 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10AM ET May 28 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $16 −$1 -4%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands May 28 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8AM ET May 28 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $69 −$20 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6AM ET May 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $5 +$3 +61%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4AM ET May 28 $5 +$4 +78%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -65%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2AM ET May 28 $10 −$7 -72%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 1AM ET May 28 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1AM ET May 28 $10 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11PM ET May 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +8%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 27? May 28 $8 −$3 -34%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +42%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $42 34m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 9¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $40 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $23 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $21 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $9 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 16d
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act SELL TEC Esports 16¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie SELL ex-RUBY 36¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.22 · official $10.09 · 358 history records