Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60ee…3ce7 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$773 (+3%) realized +$775 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%50W / 30L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$129
30 days+$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$981
other 17% −$198
politics 2% −$27
tech 1% −$9
economics 1% −$9
sports 0% +$6
culture 0% +$5
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤30d 10 +8.8% -1.6% 60% 40% -2.5%
≤90d 42 -11.0% -19.5% 57% 26% -6.3%
all 80 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 28% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 28% -6.4%
10% -22.7% 16% -15.4%
15% -30.2% 2% -23.6%
20% -37.1% 2% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$775
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses50 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)80 / 85
History coverage223d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Yes 90¢ 87¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 91¢ 88¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? No 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $49 +$10 +20%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 24 $20 −$6 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $130 +$187 +144%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,587 +$401 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,320 −$464 -20%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $102 −$70 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,300 +$104 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$5 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,796 +$524 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,327 +$148 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $1,012 −$9 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $1,634 +$42 +3%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? May 22 $50 −$5 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $1,560 +$29 +2%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 21 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 21 $30 +$9 +29%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 21 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1,182 −$7 -1%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 21 $302 +$30 +10%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 19 $18 +$5 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,410 +$53 +4%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? May 17 $55 −$27 -48%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $20 −$18 -88%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1,280 +$31 +2%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1,280 +$1 +0%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 15 $204 −$96 -47%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 13 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 06 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $23 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 28 $16 +$1 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $24 −$23 -96%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 28 $17 −$10 -61%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 28 $35 −$19 -54%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 17 $17 −$15 -85%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $11 −$7 -63%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 07 $23 +$3 +14%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 07 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 07 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 23 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12? Mar 23 $15 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 23 $30 $0 +2%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Mar 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 12 $16 +$2 +12%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Mar 12 $22 +$6 +25%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 04 $11 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $70 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY No 54¢ $10 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $22 1h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $130 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,587 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1,856 10d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $49 14d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $32 14d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $102 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,320 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,404 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,300 22d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $15 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,796 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,670 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 86¢ $1,003 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $680 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 87¢ $1,012 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $657 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,634 32d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 72¢ $46 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $1,589 32d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 34d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 34d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.50 · official $144.50 (match) · 198 history records