Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60eb…fe86 sports 39 markets active 2d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-16%) realized −$40 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$43
other 15% +$14
crypto 8% −$4
politics 2% −$6
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 33% -17.2%
≤30d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 33% -17.2%
≤90d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 33% -17.2%
all 38 -33.9% -40.2% 37% 26% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 26% -26.7%
10% -45.9% 24% -33.7%
15% -51.1% 24% -40.1%
20% -55.9% 24% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage135d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$4 +137%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +81%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 +$12 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 +$8 +94%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will G2 Esports win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $2 +$3 +143%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 03 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 02 $5 +$5 +92%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $10 −$8 -83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $15 +$9 +57%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 7? Feb 01 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 7? Feb 01 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $4 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 71¢ $2 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) BUY Spirit 34¢ $14 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 41¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 28¢ $4 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $3 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 8¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 49¢ $5 4d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 28¢ $5 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 22¢ $5 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $10 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $24 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $12 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 7¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.64 · official $20.64 (match) · 62 history records