Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60e9…2df2 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%19W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
politics 16% −$10
other 12% −$6
sports 2% +$10
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.7% -4.3% 40% 20% -7.6%
≤30d 20 +6.6% -3.5% 25% 10% -6.9%
≤90d 56 +4.2% -5.8% 27% 20% -9.5%
all 79 +3.2% -6.7% 24% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 15% -9.6%
10% -15.6% 15% -18.2%
15% -23.7% 11% -26.1%
20% -31.2% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses19 / 60
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage597d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$2 +29%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $31 $0 +1%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $175 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $166 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +70%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +50%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $7 +$5 +70%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $5 +$6 +105%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 01 $22 +$25 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 6h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 28h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 31h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 32h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $8 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 19d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $16 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.66 · official $57.66 (match) · 307 history records