Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60e6…0a97 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$16
other 12% −$3
finance 5% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 25 +0.8% -8.8% 32% 4% -8.5%
all 41 -2.9% -12.1% 51% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 5% -8.5%
10% -20.6% 5% -17.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage472d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $17 −$1 -5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $66 +$5 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $41 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $151 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $47 +$13 +27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $45 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $19 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $48 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $41 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $11 $0 +4%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $14 −$2 -13%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $16 $0 +2%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $60 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.39 · official $55.39 (match) · 149 history records