Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60e1…cc9f crypto 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+0%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%154W / 6L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$13
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$61
other 0% +$3
world 0% +$1
tech 0% +$8
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 110 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 160 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$547) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.91 per $1 lost it wins $4.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses154 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage287d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $571 $571 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 18 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 16 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $569 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $567 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $567 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 13? Jun 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 13? Jun 14 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? Jun 13 $565 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $563 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $561 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $559 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 2? Jun 02 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $555 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? May 31 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? May 28 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? May 27 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 24? May 24 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? May 24 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 19 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 18? May 18 $547 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 16? May 17 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $544 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 15? May 16 $543 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $541 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 14? May 14 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $190 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 13? May 14 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 13 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 12? May 12 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 11? May 11 $538 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 10? May 10 $537 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $571 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $570 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $569 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $569 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $567 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $567 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $46 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $170 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $350 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $566 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $565 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $563 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $563 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $562 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $561 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $560 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $560 11d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $559 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $559 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $558 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $558 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $557 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $557 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $556 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $555 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $554 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $554 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $553 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $553 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $552 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.53 · official $580.53 (match) · 411 history records