Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60dd…94b0 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$589 (-57%) realized −$588 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$57
14 days+$9
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$443
sports 27% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +94.3% +75.8% 33% 33% +34.5%
≤30d 5 +16.6% +5.5% 20% 20% -49.9%
≤90d 9 -27.1% -34.1% 11% 11% -76.3%
all 9 -27.1% -34.1% 11% 11% -76.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 11% -76.3%
10% -40.4% 11% -78.6%
15% -46.1% 11% -80.7%
20% -51.4% 11% -82.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$87 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$588
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage54d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$99 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $151 −$149 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $300 −$293 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $95 −$93 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 02 $51 −$14 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $48 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $204 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $48 7d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $151 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $300 46d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 48d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 27¢ $56 49d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 33¢ $37 51d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.19 · official $207.19 · 14 history records