Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:56:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x60dd…cdab other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$308 (-19%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days−$283
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$336
sports 20% +$23
tech 7% +$3
world 5% +$24
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.6% +4.6% 80% 40% +5.6%
≤30d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 20% -25.0%
≤90d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 20% -25.0%
all 10 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 20% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 20% -25.0%
10% -19.2% 20% -32.2%
15% -27.0% 10% -38.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$116 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? Jun 20 $56 +$25 +46%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 20 $71 +$4 +5%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun Jun 20 $34 +$2 +6%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 19 $32 +$8 +25%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 10 $116 +$3 +2%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $346 −$345 -100%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 10 $327 $0 +0%
Spread: Liberia (-2.5) Jun 10 $323 +$23 +7%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 09 $317 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $40 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes $28 1h
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30? BUY Yes $26 1h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $56 1h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $9 2h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $4 2h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $4 2h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes $27 2h
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes $43 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL Yes $1 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL Yes $18 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL Yes $17 2h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY Yes $17 3h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY Yes $18 3h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 22h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 22h
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY Yes $27 23h
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY Yes $4 23h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $32 23h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $17 27h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $17 27h
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 44¢ $18 9d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 44¢ $9 9d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 44¢ $9 9d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 41¢ $40 9d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL No 60¢ $23 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records