Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60dc…9057 world 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$527 (-0%) realized −$658 · open +$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%157W / 64L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$766per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$13,217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$2,473
14 days−$3,833
30 days−$3,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$7,087
sports 12% +$7,264
politics 8% +$698
other 4% +$1,238
tech 2% −$2,709
crypto 1% +$53
finance 1% +$99
economics 0% −$2
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 36% -14.4%
≤30d 55 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 29% -13.5%
≤90d 93 +9.8% -0.7% 74% 52% -7.6%
all 221 +2.3% -7.5% 71% 43% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 43% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 24% -18.5%
15% -24.4% 12% -26.4%
20% -31.8% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$775) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$502 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$13,217
Realized−$658
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses157 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions10
Markets (closed)221 / 231
History coverage267d
Avg bet$766
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $4,955 $5,666 +$711 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $3,156 $2,612 −$543 (-17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $975 $1,072 +$98 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $900 $875 −$25 (-3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $885 $682 −$202 (-23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 71¢ 94¢ $500 $665 +$165 (+33%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $517 $569 +$52 (+10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 48¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $483 $484 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $214 $106 −$108 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $419 +$81 +20%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $274 −$274 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $5,300 −$3,019 -57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,149 +$7,387 +144%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3,769 +$926 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $941 +$62 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,400 −$4,951 -67%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,440 +$9 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $600 +$196 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $6,270 +$469 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,705 −$680 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,088 −$3,976 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $8,522 +$1,472 +17%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $100 −$34 -34%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $290 −$102 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $400 +$65 +16%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Jun 11 $5,326 +$2,405 +45%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $168 −$18 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $344 +$20 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $760 −$241 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $675 −$463 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2,088 −$635 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $2,351 −$891 -38%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 11 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? Jun 11 $479 +$117 +24%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $169 +$15 +9%
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? Jun 11 $16 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jun 10 $2,063 +$370 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $432 +$34 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,223 +$117 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $551 +$49 +9%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,679 −$2,170 -81%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 05 $138 +$21 +15%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 05 $26 +$3 +10%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 04 $436 +$52 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $180 +$4 +2%
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? Jun 04 $127 +$5 +4%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $436 +$14 +3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $100 −$28 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $812 +$188 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $828 +$128 +15%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $340 +$60 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $445 −$3 -1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $705 +$43 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $992 +$57 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $242 −$22 -9%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? Jun 01 $392 +$108 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,383 −$20 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $245 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $59 30m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $64 47m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $360 54m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $500 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $17 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $2 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $110 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $15 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $25 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $106 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $100 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $100 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $100 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $200 9h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 75¢ $94 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $285 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $371 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $92 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $121 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $3 32h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $862 33h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $54 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,216.52 · official $13,216.52 (match) · 2463 history records