Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60d9…fc99 crypto 321 markets active 2d ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$191 (-8%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate51%162W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day55.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$145
weather 11% −$13
sports 4% −$30
world 1% −$2
other 1% −$12
politics 1% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.9% -14.8% 29% 29% -12.3%
≤30d 311 -16.1% -24.1% 51% 16% -19.1%
≤90d 317 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 17% -18.7%
all 317 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 17% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 17% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 12% -26.5%
15% -28.4% 9% -33.6%
20% -35.4% 7% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses162 / 155
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)317 / 321
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day55.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $3 −$1 -52%
Solana Up or Down on May 18? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down on May 19? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +220%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $18 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$15 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $13 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$4 -44%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$1 -9%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +37%
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$10 -67%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 01 $2 +$3 +178%
XRP Up or Down on May 18? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +27%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca end in a draw? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$4 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 38h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 39¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 41¢ $2 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.59 · official $10.59 (match) · 1880 history records