Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60d8…f2a6 weather 1068 markets active 9h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$309 (+3%) realized +$298 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%251W / 813L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$30
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$9
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 45% -13.2%
≤30d 138 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 1064 -11.7% -20.1% 24% 23% -10.2%
all 1064 -11.7% -20.1% 24% 23% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 23% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 22% -18.8%
15% -34.7% 21% -26.6%
20% -41.1% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$10 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses251 / 813
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1064 / 1068
History coverage71d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1064 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$20 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$14 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$15 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $19 +$20 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $18 +$19 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$18 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$41 +331%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$25 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$17 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $19 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $14 29h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 29h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 38h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 38h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 40h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 41h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.36 · official $42.36 (match) · 2953 history records