Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x60d6…b809 world 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$100 (-2%) realized −$102 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$12
sports 30% −$102
other 10% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -13.8% -22.0% 36% 0% -12.3%
all 14 -13.8% -22.0% 36% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 0% -12.3%
10% -29.5% 0% -20.7%
15% -36.3% 0% -28.3%
20% -42.5% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$28 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage81d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $365 $367 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 26 $372 −$12 -3%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $380 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 25 $376 +$1 +0%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 17 $281 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) May 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? May 21 $75 $0 +0%
Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club: O/U 4.5 May 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? May 20 $60 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 19 $47 +$1 +2%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 07 $478 +$15 +3%
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? May 06 $481 $0 -0%
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) Apr 23 $404 +$2 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $405 $0 +0%
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) Apr 08 $192 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $366 1h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? SELL No 90¢ $360 1h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 2h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 93¢ $279 2h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $380 18h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $380 19h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $377 19h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $376 20h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $281 8d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $281 8d
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Ettifaq Saudi Club $24 35d
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Ettifaq Saudi Club $24 35d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? SELL Yes $36 35d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? SELL Yes $39 35d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY Yes $39 36d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY Yes $36 36d
Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $38 36d
Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $41 36d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes $28 37d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes $31 37d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes $31 37d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes $28 37d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? SELL Yes $25 37d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? SELL Yes $24 37d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? BUY Yes $24 37d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? BUY Yes $23 37d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 97¢ $478 50d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 50d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $148 50d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $148 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.10 · official $367.10 (match) · 42 history records