Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60cc…ff9b sports 94 markets active 5h ago coverage 1094d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121,312 (+40%) realized +$117,387 · open +$3,925
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%20W / 69L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$3,218per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2,758est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$11,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500
7 days−$99,966
14 days−$56,212
30 days+$2,906
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$113,576
other 25% +$9,847
politics 1% −$3,863
world 0% −$907
crypto 0% −$310
tech 0% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -95.2% -95.7% 0% 0% -81.6%
≤30d 36 -37.9% -43.8% 22% 22% -8.2%
≤90d 79 -55.9% -60.1% 15% 15% -6.2%
all 89 -22.8% -30.1% 22% 22% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 22% +25.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 22% +13.6%
15% -42.9% 22% +2.6%
20% -48.5% 21% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$4,197) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,659 vs −$2,013 · ×6.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1094d coverage
Net worth$11,019
Realized+$117,387
Unrealized+$3,925
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses20 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,758
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage1094d
Avg bet$3,218
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5,500 $9,717 +$4,217 (+77%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $680 $793 +$113 (+17%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $415 $259 −$156 (-38%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $412 −$400 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,132 −$1,100 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6,301 −$6,150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14,164 −$559 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12,618 −$12,336 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $924 −$900 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $359 −$350 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $1,172 −$1,172 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Jun 15 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 15 $514 −$514 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $1,940 −$1,940 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,453 −$2,453 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $6,570 −$6,570 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 15 $254 −$254 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $11,152 −$11,152 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $9,668 −$9,668 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $576 −$576 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13,977 −$13,977 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 15 $6,361 −$6,361 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $31,270 −$19,337 -62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $308 −$300 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,839 +$24,476 +419%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,162 +$11,577 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4,463 +$7,702 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10,303 +$20,303 +197%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $16,504 +$20,385 +124%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $11,251 +$9,116 +81%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,531 +$1,779 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $6,101 +$7,536 +124%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1,514 +$691 +46%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $170 −$170 -100%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? May 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) May 14 $920 −$920 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) May 14 $792 −$792 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? May 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots May 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos May 14 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) May 14 $700 −$700 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) May 14 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $257 4h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $412 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY 21¢ $102 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $514 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $514 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $617 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $6,301 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $13,605 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $14,164 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $922 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5,063 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $412 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5,114 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $924 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,520 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $257 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $359 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5,147 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $82 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $124 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2,029 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2,453 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,019.09 · official $11,019.09 (match) · 1064 history records