Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x60c7…1d68 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$2
world 25% +$1
sports 16% +$10
politics 7% −$1
tech 5% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 0% -9.3%
all 48 +1.1% -8.5% 31% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.32 per $1 lost it wins $6.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage324d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $89 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jan 30 $2 $0 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $25 +$9 +35%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $38 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 07 $0 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 06 $2 $0 +3%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $32 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $11 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $43 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $47 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $11 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $28 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $8 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $18 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $6 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $15 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $8 14d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $21 15d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $21 15d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $41 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $4 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records