Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

60 0x60c6…c91e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$7 (+9%) realized +$8 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown68%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day15.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+21.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+33.9%	+21.2%	60%	60%	-2.8%
≤30d	5	+33.9%	+21.2%	60%	60%	-2.8%
≤90d	5	+33.9%	+21.2%	60%	60%	-2.8%
all	5	+33.9%	+21.2%	60%	60%	-2.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.2%	60%	-2.8%
10%	+9.6%	60%	-12.1%
15%	-1.0%	40%	-20.6%
20%	-10.7%	20%	-28.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.31 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day15.0

Drawdown68%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Under	56¢	56¢	$23	$23	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?	Jun 24	$7	−$5	-65%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$10	+$4	+38%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$5	+$2	+33%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$2	+$4	+206%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$5	−$2	-42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?	SELL Yes	6¢	$3	1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$24	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$26	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?	BUY Yes	15¢	$7	9h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	60¢	$6	11h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	32¢	$3	11h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	32¢	$3	11h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	81¢	$8	11h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	38¢	$6	11h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	10¢	$3	11h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	49¢	$10	12h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	23¢	$0	12h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	12h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.57 · official $47.57 (match) · 15 history records