Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60c4…3877 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 24% $0
politics 24% +$1
other 19% +$1
crypto 8% −$17
culture 7% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 5% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 29% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 9 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 38 -1.4% -10.8% 42% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage312d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $38 +$2 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 15 $50 −$17 -34%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or below on August 14? Aug 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 10 $54 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $7 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 18h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 36h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 36h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $41 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $24 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $16 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 88¢ $38 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.60 · official $41.71 (match) · 122 history records