Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60c2…d504 crypto 813 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate68%554W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$0
14 days+$15
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$101
other 27% +$136
sports 3% −$22
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 38% -9.2%
≤30d 777 -3.0% -12.3% 70% 35% -8.3%
≤90d 811 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 36% -9.0%
all 811 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 36% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 36% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 23% -17.7%
15% -29.0% 21% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 20% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses554 / 257
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)811 / 813
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 25¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 22¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +107%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +108%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +108%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +108%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 20m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.62 · official $5.97 · 1619 history records