Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60bf…b506 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,348 (+5%) realized +$1,363 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%102W / 5L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$189
politics 15% −$1
other 14% +$32
sports 7% +$1,482
finance 5% −$15
tech 2% +$18
economics 0% +$2
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 40 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 107 +3.7% -6.2% 95% 7% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 7% -5.1%
10% -15.1% 6% -14.2%
15% -23.3% 4% -22.5%
20% -30.9% 2% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$74 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.62 per $1 lost it wins $4.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$1,363
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses102 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)107 / 113
History coverage222d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 80¢ $91 $81 −$10 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 97¢ 78¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-20%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 Jun 19 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 17 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 15 $156 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $245 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $240 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading May 30 $99 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of May 30 $149 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $276 Week of May 18 2026? May 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $7.50? May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of May 18 2026? May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 19? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 18 $301 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $7.50? May 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$190 on the final day of trading of the w May 18 $194 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, May 14 $381 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 4 2026? May 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 20 May 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 08 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 21 to April May 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April Apr 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 21 $148 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 21 $240 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 17 $388 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 Apr 13 $388 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr Apr 08 $380 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April Apr 05 $180 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 03 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 14 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 12 $471 −$17 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 08 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $103 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26 BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 90¢ $91 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 100¢ $400 32h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.12 · official $398.29 (match) · 531 history records