Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60be…2407 crypto 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$364 (-12%) realized −$355 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%84W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$54
14 days−$56
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$267
world 38% +$40
other 8% −$9
sports 5% −$136
politics 4% −$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.6% -30.8% 75% 0% -16.4%
≤30d 9 -9.9% -18.5% 67% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 28 -1.5% -10.9% 79% 4% -11.4%
all 125 -13.0% -21.3% 67% 22% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 22% -20.5%
10% -28.8% 8% -28.1%
15% -35.7% 5% -35.0%
20% -42.0% 2% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$355
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses84 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage164d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Jun 20 $109 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 20 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 20 $407 +$17 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 11 $100 −$1 -1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? May 25 $50 −$2 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $89 +$5 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 25 $258 +$4 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? May 04 $10 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 04 $20 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 04 $44 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15 +$1 +4%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Apr 03 $9 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 02 $87 +$10 +12%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Mar 31 $5 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 31 $5 $0 +4%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Mar 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 28 $10 $0 +1%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Mar 28 $10 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 28 $40 +$1 +3%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $35 $0 -0%
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31? Mar 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $10 $0 +2%
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31? Mar 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $10 $0 -0%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 17 $1 +$1 +59%
Miami Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris Mar 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 17 $11 $0 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 17 $1 $0 +2%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 17 $1 $0 +3%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 17 $1 $0 +16%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 08 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 21 $50 −$42 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 21 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 21 $133 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 21 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 21 $14 −$11 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $101 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $101 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $205 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $73 6d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $200 8d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $100 8d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $99 8d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $100 8d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $23 26d
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $51 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $51 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $104 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $251 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $248 42d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $23 42d
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $100 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $50 42d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 47d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 47d
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 47d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $11 47d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $21 47d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $42 47d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 47d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $116 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.94 · official $15.96 (match) · 362 history records