Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
60 0x60bc…4876 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%81W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days−$43
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$32
sports 7% −$20
other 4% −$24
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤30d 27 -5.6% -14.6% 81% 15% -11.0%
≤90d 75 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 5% -9.6%
all 91 -1.5% -10.8% 89% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses81 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage109d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) New Zealand 88¢ 88¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $27 +$13 +50%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$21 -55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $24 −$9 -39%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $87 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $17 +$3 +14%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $83 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $81 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $71 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $71 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $66 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $61 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $60 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $60 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $60 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $58 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $57 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $56 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $54 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $54 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY New Zealand 88¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 88¢ $18 9d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 97¢ $19 9d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $16 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 10d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 49¢ $14 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 10d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $24 11d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $25 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 12d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $36 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 12d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $87 12d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $66 12d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $17 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $84 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $83 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $81 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $81 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $80 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $0 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $76 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.60 · official $39.60 (match) · 203 history records