Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x60bc…3e98 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+24%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$30
world 48% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 25% -27.4%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 25% -27.4%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 25% -27.4%
all 4 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 25% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 25% -27.4%
10% -18.0% 25% -34.4%
15% -25.9% 25% -40.7%
20% -33.1% 25% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage9d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$24 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$4 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $10 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $16 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $10 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records