Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60ba…fa60 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$131 (+7%) realized +$133 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%41W / 47L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$14
crypto 25% −$13
other 14% −$23
sports 10% +$148
finance 1% $0
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -51.4% -56.0% 25% 25% -33.2%
≤30d 11 -24.8% -31.9% 18% 18% +21.0%
≤90d 86 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 43% -0.1%
all 88 -10.9% -19.4% 47% 42% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 42% -1.5%
10% -27.1% 31% -11.0%
15% -34.1% 19% -19.6%
20% -40.6% 15% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses41 / 47
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)88 / 95
History coverage143d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+34%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $38 $27 −$11 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +24%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 −$4 -39%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -91%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $77 −$8 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$3 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $44 −$44 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $69 +$209 +304%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $68 −$42 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $25 −$7 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $5 +$4 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $4 +$5 +118%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $5 +$19 +402%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 07 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $48 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 23 $12 $0 -2%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $31 +$6 +21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 20 $20 +$4 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 19 $18 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 19 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 19 $18 −$1 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 17 $29 +$23 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $108 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 17 $3 +$2 +64%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $147 +$25 +17%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $5 $0 -10%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 14 $17 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 14 $53 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 12 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 16h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 16h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 16h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $50 8d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $24 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $36 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $36 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $39 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $262 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 23¢ $24 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.73 · official $221.28 (match) · 354 history records