Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60b8…f177 crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$14
14 days−$20
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$12
sports 36% −$4
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 34% -24.4%
≤30d 95 -8.3% -17.0% 41% 39% -20.7%
≤90d 95 -8.3% -17.0% 41% 39% -20.7%
all 95 -8.3% -17.0% 41% 39% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 39% -20.7%
10% -25.0% 37% -28.3%
15% -32.2% 34% -35.2%
20% -38.9% 34% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 73¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.51 (match) · 271 history records