Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60b8…22c4 crypto 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$302 (-4%) realized −$329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate73%266W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$170
14 days−$480
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$322
other 2% −$18
politics 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -22.0% -29.5% 59% 58% -23.6%
≤30d 352 -2.9% -12.2% 74% 73% -16.5%
≤90d 359 -4.1% -13.2% 73% 72% -16.6%
all 365 -3.8% -12.9% 73% 72% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 72% -13.6%
10% -21.3% 49% -21.9%
15% -28.9% 18% -29.4%
20% -35.9% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses266 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage586d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 917 history records