Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

60 0x60b7…665a other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$58 (+31%) realized +$58 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+13.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+25.6%	+13.6%	75%	75%	+28.7%
≤30d	4	+25.6%	+13.6%	75%	75%	+28.7%
≤90d	4	+25.6%	+13.6%	75%	75%	+28.7%
all	4	+25.6%	+13.6%	75%	75%	+28.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.6%	75%	+28.7%
10%	+2.8%	75%	+16.4%
15%	-7.2%	50%	+5.1%
20%	-16.3%	50%	-5.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$10 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.63 per $1 lost it wins $7.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$58

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$81	+$24	+29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$21	+$22	+108%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	+$33	+66%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$26	1m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$105	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$81	3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	92¢	$43	4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	43¢	$21	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$50	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.73 · official $24.73 (match) · 9 history records