Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60b3…b0a4 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$4
other 16% $0
politics 8% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 20% -11.2%
≤30d 17 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 12% -10.0%
≤90d 17 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 12% -10.0%
all 39 -2.0% -11.3% 46% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage305d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $67 −$10 -15%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $87 +$3 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $45 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $18 $0 +3%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $0 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $36 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $3 $0 -6%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $38 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $37 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $8 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $8 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $37 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $50 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records