Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

60
0x60b1…8b7c
weather · 1248 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses928 / 283
Open positions37
Markets (closed)1211 / 1248
History coverage74d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 37 History 1211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days−$41
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 92¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? No 90¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? No 87¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? No 88¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 92¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? No 90¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 91¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? No 89¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? No 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? No 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? No 91¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? No 86¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? No 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 85¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +0.7% -8.9% 91% 28% -8.2%
≤30d 547 -12.1% -20.5% 68% 23% -18.2%
≤90d 1211 -0.1% -9.6% 77% 23% -9.7%
all 1211 -0.1% -9.6% 77% 23% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 23% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 9% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 6% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.71 · official $52.71 (match) · 3500 history records