Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60af…a06e crypto 805 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+5%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%335W / 469L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day209.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$15
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 804 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 40% -11.1%
≤30d 804 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 40% -11.1%
≤90d 804 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 40% -11.1%
all 804 +0.6% -9.0% 42% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 40% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 38% -19.6%
15% -25.6% 35% -27.4%
20% -32.9% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses335 / 469
Open positions1
Markets (closed)804 / 805
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day209.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 804 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Down 22¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +201%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.96 (match) · 1619 history records