Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60ae…1399 other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$22,315 (+744%) realized +$22,316 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$59
14 days−$108
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$22,978
other 29% −$384
sports 9% −$216
crypto 4% −$67
tech 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -85.1% -86.5% 10% 10% -32.2%
≤30d 17 -91.2% -92.1% 6% 6% -67.9%
≤90d 50 +27.7% +15.6% 20% 20% +708.9%
all 50 +27.7% +15.6% 20% 20% +708.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 20% +708.9%
10% +4.5% 20% +631.5%
15% -5.6% 20% +560.8%
20% -14.8% 18% +496.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +794% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +794% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +125% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,321 vs −$23 · ×101.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.44 per $1 lost it wins $25.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$22,316
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage56d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $118 +$58 +49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 25 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 22 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will FC CFR 1907 Cluj win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $36 −$36 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $3 −$2 -97%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $8 +$41 +509%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $6 −$5 -91%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 21 $3 +$58 +1933%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 20 $1 +$2 +140%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 20 $30 −$15 -49%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 20 $284 −$198 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $11 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $113 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 12 $1 +$7 +568%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 12 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 12 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 12 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $3 +$2 +97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $100 +$258 +257%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $1,543 +$22,759 +1475%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $18 15m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes $6 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $26 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $25 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $0 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 8d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $10 17d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $31 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul BUY Rinky Hijikata $2 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul BUY Rinky Hijikata $12 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul BUY Rinky Hijikata $0 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul BUY Rinky Hijikata $0 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.09 · official $173.09 (match) · 241 history records