Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60ad…23c5 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,347 (+10%) realized +$2,139 · open +$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%65W / 125L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$94
14 days−$61
30 days+$2,084
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% +$2,424
crypto 7% −$116
weather 0% −$16
politics 0% +$5
sports 0% −$5
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -18.2% -26.0% 37% 34% -12.7%
≤30d 190 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 31% +5.0%
≤90d 190 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 31% +5.0%
all 190 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 31% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 31% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 27% -5.0%
15% -39.5% 26% -14.2%
20% -45.5% 26% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$7 · ×6.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$9,930
Realized+$2,139
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses65 / 125
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)190 / 200
History coverage26d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $5,490 $5,636 +$146 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,710 $1,810 +$100 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,504 $1,528 +$24 (+2%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 82¢ 88¢ $668 $712 +$45 (+7%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $155 $161 +$6 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 2¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $91 $26 −$65 (-71%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 44¢ 10¢ $44 $10 −$34 (-76%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 37¢ 5¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 2¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $3 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $4 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $0 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $19 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,929.53 · official $9,929.53 (match) · 826 history records