Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

60 0x60ad…b017 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$693 (-11%) realized −$566 · open −$127

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$355per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$59est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$531

7 days+$909

14 days+$909

30 days+$909

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+9.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+56.3%	+41.4%	67%	67%	+31.5%
≤30d	6	+56.3%	+41.4%	67%	67%	+31.5%
≤90d	17	+21.3%	+9.8%	59%	59%	-6.4%
all	17	+21.3%	+9.8%	59%	59%	-6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.8%	59%	-6.4%
10%	-0.7%	59%	-15.4%
15%	-10.3%	59%	-23.6%
20%	-19.1%	53%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late +49% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$318 vs −$425 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage

Net worth$218

Realized−$566

Unrealized−$127

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Est. fees paid−$59

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage80d

Avg bet$355

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	42¢	27¢	$346	$218	−$127 (-37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 23	$428	+$923	+216%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$201	+$228	+114%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$505	−$497	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$306	−$306	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$322	+$184	+57%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 21	$250	+$378	+151%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Apr 09	$823	−$810	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	Apr 08	$443	+$380	+86%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?	Apr 07	$205	+$238	+116%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5	Apr 06	$470	−$462	-98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06?	Apr 06	$339	+$131	+39%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04?	Apr 06	$206	+$133	+64%
Bruins vs. Flyers	Apr 05	$300	−$300	-100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 05	$123	−$123	-100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 05	$490	−$480	-98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 05	$428	+$265	+62%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05?	Apr 05	$205	+$323	+158%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$352	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$1,351	2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	31¢	$428	5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$429	5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$201	19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$505	32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$322	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	28¢	$306	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	99¢	$628	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	39¢	$250	2d
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	44¢	$823	75d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	SELL Yes	100¢	$823	76d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	53¢	$443	76d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?	SELL Yes	99¢	$443	77d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?	BUY Yes	45¢	$205	77d
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	41¢	$470	78d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06?	SELL Yes	98¢	$470	78d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06?	BUY Yes	70¢	$339	78d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04?	SELL Yes	100¢	$339	78d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04?	BUY Yes	60¢	$206	78d
Bruins vs. Flyers	BUY Bruins	24¢	$300	79d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-05?	BUY Yes	33¢	$392	79d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	79d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05?	SELL Yes	100¢	$692	79d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-05?	BUY Yes	32¢	$98	79d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05?	BUY Yes	61¢	$428	79d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05?	SELL Yes	100¢	$528	79d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05?	BUY Yes	38¢	$205	79d
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-05?	BUY Yes	56¢	$123	79d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.46 · official $202.41 · 32 history records