Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

60 0x60a9…f2d7 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$240 (-34%) realized −$337 · open +$97

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	6	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$49 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage

Net worth$494

Realized−$337

Unrealized+$97

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage104d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$397	$494	+$97 (+24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	Mar 15	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	Mar 15	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	Mar 15	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 08	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 08	$115	−$115	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$184	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$3	21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$224	21h
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	96d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	2¢	$30	96d
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	0¢	$25	96d
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	96d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	10¢	$100	96d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	3¢	$4	103d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	13¢	$115	103d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.66 · official $493.66 (match) · 10 history records