Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

60
0x60a9…5a71
world · 179 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$77,177 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$54,232 · open +$5,599
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103,167
Realized+$54,232
Unrealized+$5,599
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses81 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Open positions100
Markets (closed)125 / 179
History coverage53d
Avg bet$3,833
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 100 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,522
7 days−$905
14 days+$21,037
30 days+$31,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $7,054 $7,546 +$491 (+7%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 57¢ 74¢ $5,054 $6,548 +$1,494 (+30%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $6,215 $6,496 +$281 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $5,812 $6,126 +$315 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $5,191 $5,222 +$31 (+1%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No 64¢ 90¢ $3,187 $4,480 +$1,293 (+41%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 81¢ $4,001 $4,265 +$264 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 86¢ 94¢ $3,629 $3,935 +$306 (+8%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 92¢ $2,950 $3,835 +$885 (+30%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? No 94¢ 98¢ $3,474 $3,651 +$177 (+5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $2,503 $3,568 +$1,065 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $2,985 $3,313 +$328 (+11%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $2,710 $2,745 +$35 (+1%)
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 81¢ 97¢ $2,268 $2,722 +$454 (+20%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 78¢ 84¢ $2,358 $2,537 +$180 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 66¢ 53¢ $3,161 $2,520 −$641 (-20%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 72¢ 86¢ $1,980 $2,352 +$372 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 31¢ $2,403 $2,209 −$194 (-8%)
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 81¢ 98¢ $1,812 $2,198 +$386 (+21%)
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,983 $2,189 +$206 (+10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 59¢ 98¢ $872 $1,465 +$593 (+68%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $665 $1,459 +$794 (+119%)
Les Wexner charged by June 30? No 89¢ 94¢ $1,311 $1,373 +$61 (+5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $1,240 $1,316 +$75 (+6%)
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? No 58¢ 39¢ $1,881 $1,265 −$616 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $719 −$313 -44%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,468 +$964 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $9,482 +$2,897 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $8,873 −$8,208 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $6,084 +$531 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $253 +$39 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $7,045 +$1,255 +18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $4,300 +$436 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2,124 +$70 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $10,277 −$144 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,694 +$692 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 08 $1,200 +$656 +55%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 08 $7,220 −$729 -10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $13,568 +$2,617 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $14,522 −$2,437 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2,584 +$2,090 +81%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4,640 −$577 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $5,503 −$696 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $81 −$81 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $600 +$74 +12%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $5,050 +$2,333 +46%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 03 $3,992 +$4,503 +113%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $5,145 +$3,795 +74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,050 +$331 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25,534 +$2,058 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$16 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3,131 +$40 +1%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $94 −$85 -90%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $495 −$257 -52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $182 +$1,303 +716%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $3,860 +$281 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,381 +$57 +2%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $1,959 +$357 +18%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $917 +$252 +28%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $2,070 +$691 +33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $11,030 +$1,670 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $16,140 +$3,753 +23%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $5,500 +$204 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $400 −$211 -53%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $550 −$397 -72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,202 +$127 +11%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 31 $2,880 +$948 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $3,931 +$699 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $4,271 −$508 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $7,555 −$4,544 -60%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $5,366 +$245 +5%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 24 $798 +$244 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% +$40,661
other 10% +$18,004
politics 9% +$279
finance 2% +$433
tech 0% +$455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,076 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $66 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $218 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $166 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $65 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 10h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $2,613 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $683 13h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $570 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $360 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $1,173 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,400 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $704 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 76¢ $318 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 76¢ $5 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 76¢ $5 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 76¢ $5 15h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 15h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $259 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 85¢ $3,635 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $0 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $466 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $1,324 15h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $166 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $3,595 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $350 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.1% -6.8% 58% 42% -10.3%
≤30d 78 +24.7% +12.8% 67% 49% -0.3%
≤90d 125 +43.0% +29.4% 65% 47% -0.2%
all 125 +43.0% +29.4% 65% 47% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.4% 47% -0.2%
10% +17.0% 33% -9.8%
15% ← realistic here +5.7% 22% -18.5%
20% -4.7% 17% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103,166.62 · official $103,169.25 (match) · 3500 history records