Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

60
0x60a8…7d37
world · 321 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$271 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open +$67
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,859
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses111 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions158
Markets (closed)162 / 321
History coverage21d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 158 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$973
7 days−$758
14 days−$233
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $115 $142 +$27 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $132 $122 −$10 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 76¢ $125 $117 −$9 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 98¢ $90 $90 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 63¢ 74¢ $75 $88 +$13 (+17%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 72¢ 96¢ $60 $80 +$20 (+33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $70 $76 +$6 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $61 $74 +$12 (+20%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $65 $66 +$2 (+2%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 42¢ 78¢ $36 $66 +$30 (+84%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 44¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 98¢ $37 $51 +$14 (+37%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 81¢ 100¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 37¢ 68¢ $25 $46 +$21 (+85%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $62 $41 −$21 (-34%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 23¢ 46¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+100%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $41 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 58¢ 62¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5? No 87¢ 98¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $29 +$2 +5%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $54 +$16 +29%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "Sh!t" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "Thought It Was a Drought" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ce Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "Fuck Up Some Commas" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremon Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "PLUTOSKI" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "March Madness" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "TOO FAST" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "Same Damn Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "Stick Talk" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $17 −$2 -12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $65 −$41 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 −$34 -85%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand P Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand P Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$14 +130%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $162 +$46 +28%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $125 −$75 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 13 $95 −$38 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% −$223
other 11% +$4
politics 9% +$44
culture 6% +$36
tech 4% +$86
sports 3% +$4
crypto 2% +$174
finance 2% +$4
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 83¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 83¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 83¢ $13 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $23 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 15m
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL No 63¢ $6 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 16m
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $9 19m
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 97¢ $5 19m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $35 21m
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 76¢ $6 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 22m
Will Jordan be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W BUY No 91¢ $0 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 82¢ $14 26m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 83¢ $15 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 28m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 24¢ $2 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 24¢ $3 30m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 33m
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 33m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 33m
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $10 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -27.9% -34.8% 48% 36% -34.8%
≤30d 162 -1.9% -11.2% 69% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 162 -1.9% -11.2% 69% 52% -8.4%
all 162 -1.9% -11.2% 69% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 52% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 27% -17.2%
15% -27.5% 18% -25.2%
20% -34.6% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,859.28 · official $2,868.57 (match) · 1716 history records