Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x60a7…28c5 crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$121 (+3%) realized +$120 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%76W / 31L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$84
sports 11% +$160
other 3% −$5
weather 0% −$6
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +14.5% +3.6% 71% 59% -8.3%
≤30d 107 +14.5% +3.6% 71% 59% -8.3%
≤90d 107 +14.5% +3.6% 71% 59% -8.3%
all 107 +14.5% +3.6% 71% 59% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.6% 59% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.3% 50% -17.1%
15% -15.4% 39% -25.1%
20% -23.7% 28% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses76 / 31
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 76¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 67¢ 20¢ $40 $12 −$28 (-69%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 36¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 64¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $77 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $228 −$214 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $128 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $128 −$81 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$33 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$25 +25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 8m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 36m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $75 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.79 · official $154.79 (match) · 263 history records