Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60a6…aac8 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized −$12 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$117
other 18% −$77
politics 4% −$6
economics 2% +$4
tech 1% +$1
sports 1% +$170
finance 1% +$11
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -2.8% -12.0% 35% 4% -10.9%
all 43 +15.5% +4.5% 56% 21% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 21% -9.7%
10% -5.5% 12% -18.3%
15% -14.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -23.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$2,368
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage542d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,494 $1,493 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 82¢ $405 $412 +$7 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $282 $291 +$9 (+3%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 77¢ 84¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+10%)
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $2,370 −$51 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $274 −$21 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $1,068 −$5 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $288 −$57 -20%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $143 −$4 -3%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 16 $102 +$11 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,281 +$125 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,620 +$161 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $886 −$129 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $33 +$2 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 23 $218 −$29 -13%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $262 −$24 -9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $468 −$24 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 23 $188 −$24 -13%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 23 $139 +$9 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $45 −$3 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 23 $130 −$6 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $1,201 −$100 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 23 $118 −$2 -2%
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? Apr 18 $102 −$2 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $125 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Wizards Mar 29 $76 +$24 +32%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jan 30 $86 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 30 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 30 $18 +$3 +15%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2025? Jan 30 $20 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 30 $40 +$10 +27%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 30 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $18 +$144 +800%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $206 +$2 +1%
Meteora FDV above $10B one day after launch? Dec 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $16 +$3 +20%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Sep 16 $30 +$4 +15%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $23 −$18 -80%
Solana ETF approved in 2025? Aug 28 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 29 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Mar 03 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Biden finish his term? Mar 03 $221 +$3 +2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 08 $39 −$8 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,494 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $405 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $196 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $188 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $260 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $44 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $400 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $434 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $120 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $410 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $420 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $123 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,367.75 · official $2,367.75 (match) · 748 history records