Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

60
0x609f…998a
sports · 22 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$23 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage184d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 21¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 49¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $6 +$4 +66%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs OG (BO3) Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy (BO1) Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $14 +$13 +92%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $5 +$9 +194%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $4 +$1 +22%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $3 +$1 +33%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 24 $1 $0 +45%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) Dec 15 $3 −$2 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY 1WIN 57¢ $1 59d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 65¢ $1 77d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof BUY Xtreme Gaming 41¢ $8 77d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Xtreme Gaming 42¢ $10 106d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $10 106d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Xtreme Gaming 61¢ $6 107d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY PARIVISION 60¢ $6 107d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Tundra Esports 48¢ $15 107d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY PARIVISION 52¢ $14 107d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Xtreme Gaming 100¢ $14 107d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Xtreme Gaming 34¢ $5 107d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $5 107d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $4 108d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $4 108d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Tundra Esports 75¢ $3 108d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY PARIVISION 60¢ $2 110d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $2 110d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Tundra Esports 69¢ $1 110d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BetBoom Team (BO3) BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $4 149d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy (BO1) BUY Spirit Academy 27¢ $1 152d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs OG (BO3) BUY OG 36¢ $1 152d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) BUY BetBoom Team 68¢ $2 184d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) SELL BetBoom Team 67¢ $1 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -41.1% -46.7% 40% 40% -70.2%
≤30d 5 -41.1% -46.7% 40% 40% -70.2%
≤90d 5 -41.1% -46.7% 40% 40% -70.2%
all 19 -26.9% -33.9% 42% 42% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 42% -31.3%
10% -40.2% 37% -37.9%
15% -46.0% 32% -43.9%
20% -51.3% 16% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $1.23 (match) · 43 history records