Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

60 0x609e…623c other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$19 (+8%) realized +$27 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$82per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+31.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+45.5%	+31.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%
≤30d	1	+45.5%	+31.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%
≤90d	1	+45.5%	+31.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%
all	1	+45.5%	+31.6%	100%	100%	+31.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.6%	100%	+31.6%
10%	+19.1%	100%	+19.1%
15%	+7.5%	100%	+7.5%
20%	-3.0%	0%	-3.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$136

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$82

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	44¢	40¢	$98	$90	−$8 (-8%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Yes	51¢	50¢	$46	$46	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$100	+$46	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	51¢	$47	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$146	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$99	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$100	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.59 · official $135.59 (match) · 4 history records