Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x609e…80c0 politics 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$246 (-0%) realized −$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$797per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$45
other 41% −$43
economics 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
sports 2% −$171
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -6.9% -15.8% 6% 2% -9.9%
all 86 -6.7% -15.6% 6% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 2% -9.9%
10% -23.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$929) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage91d
Avg bet$797
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $477 $478 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,953 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $209 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $1,904 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $312 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $450 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $297 +$1 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $525 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $415 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,604 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $693 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $729 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $787 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,913 −$3 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $899 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $929 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $920 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $931 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,660 −$2 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $946 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $651 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 3h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 3h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 8h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 19h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $264 24h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $477 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $863 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $865 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $313 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $314 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $312 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $312 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $269 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $692 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $693 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $581 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $582 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $555 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $555 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $574 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $575 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $751 19d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $752 19d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $614 19d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $615 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $613 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.66 · official $477.66 (match) · 257 history records