Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x609c…66d8 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$1
other 21% +$1
sports 7% $0
finance 4% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 6% -9.7%
all 35 -1.2% -10.6% 34% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage482d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $38 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $7 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 31 $2 $0 -5%
Megaquake in March? Mar 29 $18 $0 +1%
Gavin Newsom out as Governor before April? Mar 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ross Ulbricht go on Joe Rogan before March? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $33 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $22 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $10 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $19 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $7 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $36 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.77 · official $34.77 (match) · 110 history records