Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x609b…b1cc other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$29
politics 20% −$2
sports 8% +$18
economics 4% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 7% -9.7%
all 104 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 7% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage89d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $148 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $279 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $130 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 18h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 21h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 46h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.90 · official $55.90 (match) · 302 history records