Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6096…e6d9 other 535 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$532 (-0%) realized −$485 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%420W / 112L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$349
14 days−$613
30 days−$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$165
tech 4% −$7
crypto 4% +$2
culture 3% −$9
weather 2% −$3
sports 1% −$374
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$48
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 28% -27.7%
≤30d 121 -21.8% -29.2% 49% 19% -30.7%
≤90d 240 -9.6% -18.2% 72% 13% -12.3%
all 532 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 7% -9.9%
10% -21.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$485
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses420 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)532 / 535
History coverage186d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Panama leading at halftime? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$32 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$69 +711%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 17 $50 −$2 -4%
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 +$28 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $43 +$8 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$92 +180%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $51 −$15 -29%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $0 $0 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $50 −$5 -10%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $43 +$9 +20%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $48 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -54%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$14 +139%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $49 +$3 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 2 - 3 CR Brasil? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $48 1h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $78 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $48 7h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura SELL Masamichi Imamura 49¢ $48 10h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 49¢ $51 10h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Adela Polakovicova 32¢ $10 15h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Adela Polakovicova 32¢ $40 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 27h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 42¢ $33 35h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 50¢ $32 35h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 50¢ $4 35h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 42¢ $1 35h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 50¢ $5 35h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 42¢ $8 35h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 50¢ $5 35h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Jessica Pieri 47¢ $5 35h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 50¢ $45 37h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez 50¢ $5 37h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $1 44h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $8 44h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $37 44h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 47¢ $4 44h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Masamichi Imamura 50¢ $31 44h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Masamichi Imamura 50¢ $1 44h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Masamichi Imamura 50¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.01 · official $144.01 (match) · 1433 history records