Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
60 0x6094…3bd9 sports 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 525d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$41,240 (+18%) realized +$42,704 · open −$1,464
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%55W / 81L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,384per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$685est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,494
7 days+$12,946
14 days+$13,308
30 days+$13,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$48,854
other 4% −$4,180
crypto 1% −$1,390
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +129.2% +107.3% 43% 41% +33.9%
≤30d 51 +86.3% +68.5% 37% 35% +27.7%
≤90d 51 +86.3% +68.5% 37% 35% +27.7%
all 136 +48.4% +34.3% 40% 38% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.3% 38% +8.0%
10% +21.4% 38% -2.3%
15% +9.7% 36% -11.8%
20% -1.1% 33% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$2,005) neutral
Persistence
early +47% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,538 vs −$1,171 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1,260
Realized+$42,704
Unrealized−$1,464
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses55 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$685
Open positions12
Markets (closed)136 / 164
History coverage525d
Avg bet$1,384
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $510 $457 −$54 (-10%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $987 $241 −$746 (-76%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $128 $134 +$6 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $255 $121 −$135 (-53%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $208 $99 −$108 (-52%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $200 $68 −$132 (-66%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $113 $42 −$71 (-63%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $97 $30 −$67 (-69%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $90 $1 −$89 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $303 +$125 +41%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $39 +$96 +242%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $821 −$161 -20%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $909 +$434 +48%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $49 −$48 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $690 −$10 -1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $531 −$517 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $223 +$7,395 +3311%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $813 −$800 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,923 −$507 -13%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $856 −$838 -98%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 +$90 +238%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$24 +137%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $399 −$388 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $716 −$700 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $915 −$900 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,706 +$1,386 +81%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $410 −$400 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $450 +$866 +192%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,114 +$159 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,415 −$2,415 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $85 +$71 +84%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,774 +$1,196 +67%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $372 +$6,328 +1700%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$48 -94%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1,086 +$3,269 +301%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $542 −$30 -6%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $412 −$404 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $587 −$572 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 +$313 +1521%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1,419 −$20 -1%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $351 +$1,073 +306%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $2,179 −$50 -2%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,098 −$484 -44%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $534 +$733 +137%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $1,449 −$430 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $587 −$573 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $817 −$740 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $131 16m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $428 17m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $92 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $303 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $135 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR BUY 8¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? AND Will England vs. Croatia end BUY 5¢ $0 11h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $627 14h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 18h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $909 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $10 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 95¢ $968 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $680 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 5¢ $690 27h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end i BUY 1¢ $1 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 5¢ $26 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 4¢ $26 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 4¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,259.88 · official $1,246.29 · 861 history records