Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

60
0x608f…9065
other · 177 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,723 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,761 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$171
Realized+$1,761
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses18 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions24
Markets (closed)153 / 177
History coverage680d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 24 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$176
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 87¢ 85¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 67¢ 57¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 65¢ 52¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-22%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 62¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 64¢ 43¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 68¢ 67¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? No 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-89%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 68¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $19 $0 -1%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Tabi FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 13 $27 −$3 -11%
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 13 $25 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Jun 13 $16 −$7 -41%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 13 $0 $0 -93%
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group S Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Will Argentina finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 13 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 13 $26 −$3 -11%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 13 $35 −$4 -12%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$5 -31%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -14%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 13 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close Jun 12 $0 $0 -2%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 58% −$23
other 16% −$205
world 10% −$89
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% +$2,052
tech 2% −$26
finance 2% +$30
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 13m
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI SELL No 49¢ $10 15m
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI BUY No 49¢ $10 15m
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY No 68¢ $6 37m
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 87¢ $17 56m
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 48¢ $10 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 6¢ $1 2h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 6¢ $1 2h
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? SELL No 87¢ $17 2h
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 24¢ $3 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $15 2h
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 24¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 3h
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL Yes 56¢ $5 3h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL Yes 56¢ $4 3h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL Yes 56¢ $2 3h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 3h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 56¢ $11 3h
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4h
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? BUY No 87¢ $17 4h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 40¢ $1 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 40¢ $8 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 33¢ $7 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 33¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -5.8% -14.8% 4% 1% -12.7%
≤30d 123 -5.8% -14.7% 5% 1% -12.5%
≤90d 124 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 1% -12.4%
all 153 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 1% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 1% +0.9%
10% -20.9% 1% -8.7%
15% -28.5% 1% -17.6%
20% -35.5% 1% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.37 · official $171.37 (match) · 771 history records