Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6087…e57a weather 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate66%128W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$23
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$17
crypto 18% −$16
other 12% −$16
sports 3% +$38
politics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -8.6% -17.3% 72% 9% -9.6%
≤30d 100 -1.5% -10.8% 84% 21% -8.3%
≤90d 153 -6.9% -15.7% 72% 25% -9.9%
all 193 -5.0% -14.1% 66% 27% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 27% -9.9%
10% -22.3% 16% -18.5%
15% -29.8% 9% -26.4%
20% -36.7% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses128 / 65
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)193 / 195
History coverage95d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $38 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $74 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 +$32 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 +$5 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $9 −$2 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $84 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 15h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $22 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? SELL No 89¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $25 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $30 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 4d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 4d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $35 4d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.86 · official $105.42 (match) · 859 history records