Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6084…1e9b crypto 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$692 (+6%) realized +$697 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%56W / 131L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$182
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$627
world 6% +$1,161
other 6% −$148
politics 3% −$75
sports 2% −$73
finance 2% +$110
economics 1% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -78.0% -80.1% 12% 12% -65.9%
≤90d 129 -81.9% -83.6% 5% 5% -65.3%
all 187 -21.7% -29.1% 30% 25% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 25% -7.4%
10% -35.9% 22% -16.2%
15% -42.1% 22% -24.3%
20% -47.8% 22% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$46 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$697
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses56 / 131
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)187 / 193
History coverage171d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $285 −$35 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $51 +$39 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $50 +$50 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $75 +$75 +101%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? Apr 13 $70 −$65 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Apr 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on January 27? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $60 +$47 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Apr 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 8? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 53¢ $27 6d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: United States (-2.5) AND Will Ge BUY 3¢ $26 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $553 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 4¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $250 14d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 88¢ $89 15d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 71d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $107 71d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? BUY No 6¢ $20 73d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? BUY No 5¢ $50 73d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $20 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $150 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.27 · official $180.27 (match) · 563 history records