Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x6082…3323 other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$342 (+29%) realized +$340 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$37
sports 29% +$478
crypto 6% −$14
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +19.9% +8.5% 32% 32% +23.2%
≤30d 41 +19.9% +8.5% 32% 32% +23.2%
≤90d 41 +19.9% +8.5% 32% 32% +23.2%
all 41 +19.9% +8.5% 32% 32% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 32% +23.2%
10% -1.9% 32% +11.4%
15% -11.4% 32% +0.7%
20% -20.1% 29% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$21 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$340
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $66 +$83 +126%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -90%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $111 −$110 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $144 +$286 +199%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$41 +78%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$26 +63%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$83 +181%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$139 +228%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$113 +282%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$154 +1663%
Endrick: 2+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 13m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 42h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 42h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 42h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 46¢ $14 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $15 2d
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $430 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.86 · official $21.86 (match) · 103 history records